AGENDA & RECORDINGS

Ministerial and Diplomatic Reception (By-Invitation Only - TBD)

HON. EDUARDO AÑO

National Security Adviser, Philippines

Co-Host

PROF. VICTOR ‘DINDO’ MANHIT

Vice-Chair, WPS Foundation; President & Founder, Stratbase

Co-Host

H.E. JOSE MANUEL G. ROMUALDEZ

Ambassador of the Republic of the Philippines to the United States

Welcome Remarks

HMA SARAH HULTON

Ambassador of the United Kingdom to the Philippines

Dedication Toast

HON. MARYKAY CARLSON (TBD)

Ambassador of the United States to the Philippines

Dedication Toast

Opening Dinner and Keynote Address (TBD)

DR. JEFFREY ORDANIEL

President & CEO, WPS; Lead Convenor, The Manila Dialogue on the South China Sea

Agenda Setting & Introduction of the Keynote Speaker

H.E. FERDINAND MARCOS, JR.

President of the Philippines

Keynote Address; Represeted by

LUCAS BERSAMIN

Executive Secretary, Office of the President of the Philippines

(As Part of Opening Dinner) Opening Panel: Decades of Conferences on the South China Sea - Lessons Learned, Persistent Themes, and the Path Toward Greater Relevance

ELINA NOOR

Senior Fellow, Asia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Panelists

CAPT. XIAOBO LIU (RET., PLA NAVY)

Director, Marine Study Center Grandview Institution, Beijing

Panelists

COMMO. JAY TARRIELA

Commander, West Philippine Sea Transparency Group, Philippine Coast Guard

Panelists

TRANG PHAM, LL.M.

Research Fellow, The Max Planck Foundation for International Peace and the Rule of Law

Panelists

DR. HAFIIZH HASHIM

Assistant Lecturer, Universiti Brunei Darussalam

Panelists

BRAD GLOSSERMAN

Director of Research, Pacific Forum, Honolulu

Chair

Plenary Session 1: History Versus International Law? - Understanding Historic Rights and Modern Maritime Zones in the South China Sea

The South China Sea dispute is often framed as a clash between history and the modern international law of the sea. For instance, there is an argument that China’s so-called “historic rights” either contradicts or supports the maritime entitlements established under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). This panel will examine the tensions between history and law: How should colonial-era maps, fishing practices, or vague notions of historic entitlement be weighed against the legal certainty of territorial sea, exclusive economic zones and continental shelf? What lessons can be drawn from the 2016 arbitral award, which rejected expansive historic claims, and how should states balance respect for tradition with the demands of a rules-based maritime order? By unpacking these questions, the session will explore pathways toward reconciling historical narratives with binding international legal norms.

DR. BILL HAYTON

Associate Fellow, Asia-Pacific Program, Chatham House, London

Presenter

DR. WU SHICUN

Chairman, Huayang Center for Martime Cooperation and Ocean Governance; Chairman, Academic Committee, NISCSS

Presenter

FRANCOIS-XAVIER BONNET

Senior Fellow, Research Institute on Contemporary Southeast Asia, Bangkok

Discussant

ANTONIO CARPIO

Chair, Philippine Advisory Board, WPS, Manila

Discussant

TRANG PHAM, LL.M.

Research Fellow, The Max Planck Foundation for International Peace and the Rule of Law

Discussant

DR. BEC STRATING

Director, La Trobe Asia

Chair

Plenary Session 2: Diplomatic Roundtable - The South China Sea as 'Global Commons'

The South China Sea is more than a contested maritime space—it is a vital global commons that underpins international trade, energy flows, food security, and ecological sustainability. Ensuring that it remains open, stable, and governed by international law is a shared interest not only for coastal states but also for the wider international community. This session will feature keynote remarks from Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Maria Theresa Lazaro, followed by a fireside chat with ambassadors from the United States, Japan, Canada, and Germany. Together, they will explore how like-minded states can strengthen cooperation to safeguard the South China Sea as a global commons, uphold the rule of law, and preserve freedom of navigation and overflight for all.

H.E. DAVID HARTMAN

Canadian Ambassador to the Philippines

Panelist

H.E. MARC INNES-BROWN

Australian Ambassador to the Philippines

Panelist

H.E. MARIE FONTANEL

French Ambassador to the Philippines

Panelist

H.E. ANDREAS MICHAEL PFAFFERNOSCHKE

German Ambassador to the Philippines

Panelist

H.E. ENDO KAZUYA

Japanese Ambassador to the Philippines

Panelist

PROF. VICTOR DINDO MANHIT

President & CEO, Stratbase Group; Vice-Chair, WPS Foundation

Chair

Disinformation and Influence: Addressing the Challenge of Malign Information Operations - A Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Special Working Lunch Roundtable (By Invitation Only/Chatham House Rule)

This roundtable discussion will focus on the growing threat of state-backed disinformation campaigns as an instrument of geopolitical competition, focusing in particular on influence operations attributed to the People's Republic of China. Even though disinformation is often perceived as a digital or a domestic issue, it is increasingly becoming entangled with maritime security concerns, as it shapes public narratives on sovereignty, undermines trust in defense institutions, and polarizes public debate over territorial disputes. Framed within the context of The Manila Dialogue, this discussion will explore how Chinese narratives are deployed to influence perceptions around the South China Sea and regional maritime claims, and how they interact with local political dynamics and media ecosystems in Southeast Asia and beyond. Participants will consider existing countermeasures and examine the roles of governments, media, and civil society in responding to these campaigns, and what regional cooperation can look like in the information domain. The goal of the session is to surface practical and grounded approaches to protect the information space as a crucial dimension of maritime security.

DR. MARK SPEICH

Secretary General, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung

Welcome Remarks

DR. MAREIKE OHLBERG

Senior Fellow, Indo-Pacific Program, The German Marshall Fund of the United States

Panelist | Topic: Inside the Ecosystem of Influence

COMMO. JAY TARRIELA

Commander, Philippine Coast Guard - West Philippine Sea Transparency Group

Panelist | Topic: Strengthening National and Regional Resilience

MARITES DAÑGUILAN VITUG

Editor-at-Large, Rappler

Moderator

DANIELA BRAUN

Country Director, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) Philippines

Closing Remarks

Plenary Session 3: Securing Submarine Cables in the South China Sea - A Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) Philippines Special Plenary Session

Subsea cable sabotage has emerged as a particularly alarming gray zone tactic globally. A noticeable uptick in subsea cable damage reports, often coinciding with reports of suspicious vessel activity by Chinese- and Russianflagged ships, has been observed in the Baltic Sea, in the East and South China Sea (especially around Taiwan), and the Red Sea in recent years. These incidents have heightened concerns of deliberate sabotage and fears that hostile actors may be using such actions as a form of low-intensity hybrid warfare amid intensifying geopolitical conflicts. However, none of these incidents have resulted in formal legal action or accountability despite growing concern, primarily due to the plausible deniability and the difficulty of attribution surrounding such cases. Nevertheless, given the indispensable role that subsea cables play in global communications, economic stability, and national security, their vulnerability poses a growing risk to international order. In particular, the South China Sea—already a flashpoint for regional tensions and strategic rivalry—represent a high-risk zone for deliberate disruption. Within this context, this KAS Philippines plenary session will discuss why the protection of subsea cables is a critical maritime security concern especially in the South China Sea and explore practical measures to enhance the resilience and defense of these vital systems

KATJA BEGO

Senior Research Fellow, International Security Programme, Chatham House

Panelist

JANE CHAN

Senior Fellow & Coordinator, Maritime Security Programme, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS

Panelist

ELINA NOOR

Senior Fellow, Asia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Panelist

DR. SU WAI MON

Research Fellow, Centre for International Law, National University of Singapore

Panelist

DR. FRANCIS DOMINGO

Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of the Philippines Diliman

Chair

Plenary Session 4: Securing Freedom of Navigation and the Rule of Law through Cross-Regional Defense Cooperation

Freedom of navigation and the rule of law are indispensable pillars of peace, stability, and security in the South China Sea. Yet these principles face persistent challenges from coercive actions and unlawful assertions of maritime claims. This panel will explore whether and how cross-regional defense cooperation—through joint patrols, combined exercises, visiting forces agreements, maritime domain awareness initiatives, and other arrangements—can help reinforce international law and safeguard navigational freedoms. By bringing together perspectives from Southeast Asia and beyond, the discussion will examine both the opportunities and risks of involving extra-regional defense partners, and whether such cooperation contributes to a more resilient, rules-based maritime order.

DR. COLLIN KOH

Senior Fellow, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies

Presenter

DR. SOPHIE WUSHUANG YI

Research Fellow, Marine Studies Center, Grandview Institution

Discussant

ATTY. FRETTI GANCHOON

Maritime Expert & DOJ Senior State Counsel, Philippines

Discussant

RAY POWELL

Sealight Project – Stanford University

Discussant

DR. JOHN HEMMINGS

Deputy Director for Geopolitics, Council on Geostrategy, London

Discussant

VINA NADJIBULLA

Vice-President, Research & Strategy, Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada

Chair

Special Roundtable Discussion: Enhancing Security Cooperation for a Free, Open and Rules-based South China Sea

The stability of the Indo-Pacific rests on the ability of states to work together in defending a free, open, and rules-based maritime order. This special roundtable will bring together senior national security officials from across the region to discuss current challenges their countries are facing to generate lessons learned, practical avenues for enhancing security cooperation—ranging from intelligence-sharing and joint exercises to maritime domain awareness and capacity-building. With perspectives from Southeast Asia, South Asia, and the Pacific, the discussion will highlight opportunities for greater alignment among like-minded partners in addressing shared challenges to peace and stability at sea. The session will be followed by an informal networking reception.

DATO’ RAJA NUSHIRWAN BIN ZAINAL ABIDIN

Director General, National Security Council, Malaysia

HON. JENNIFER ANSON

National Security Coordinator, Republic of Palau

H.E. LAI THAI BINH

Vietnamese Ambassador to the Philippines & Palau

HON. EDUARDO AÑO

National Security Adviser, Philippines

CES OREÑA-DRILON

Anchor for The Big Story, One News

Chair

Plenary Session 5: Transparency as Policy - Safeguarding the Information Space Against Malign Influence Operations

Information is increasingly becoming a battlefield, where disinformation campaigns, false narratives, and malign influence operations are deployed to shape perceptions and undermine rules-based foreign policy positions. This fireside discussion will examine how transparency itself can serve as a strategic policy—building resilience through open communication, free press, and cooperative information-sharing, including exposing bad behaviors at sea. Panelists will explore the role of governments, media, and civil society in countering malign influence operations related to the South China Sea and the wider Indo-Pacific, and how safeguarding the information space contributes to maritime security and regional stability.

PROF. HU BO

Director, South China Sea Probing Initiative; Professor, Peking University, Beijing

Panelist

DR. TRICIA YEOH

Associate Professor of Practice, University of Nottingham Malaysia

Panelist

DR. MAREIKE OHLBERG

Senior Fellow, Indo-Pacific Program, The German Marshall Fund of the United States

Panelist

COMMO. JAY TARRIELA

Commander, Philippine Coast Guard - West Philippine Sea Transparency Group

Panelist

PROF. ANNE-MARIE BRADY

Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Canterbury

Panelist

ELINA NOOR

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Chair

Parallel Session A: The Nexus of Maritime Security and Economic Security Angles

Maritime security in the South China Sea is inseparable from the region’s broader economic security, directly affecting global trade, energy flows, and the livelihoods of millions. This session will bring together experts to explore how maritime tensions intersect with economic vulnerabilities, and how regional and extra-regional actors can align strategies to safeguard their economies, including resisting economic coercion. The discussion will consider the risks of conflict escalation, the costs of coercive behavior, and the opportunities for cooperation.

JONATHAN BERKSHIRE MILLER

Senior Fellow, Macdonald-Laurier Institute, Ottawa

Panelist

PROF. VICTOR ANDRES MANHIT

President & CEO, Stratbase Group

Panelist

PROF. WONGI CHOE

Head, Center for ASEAN–Indian Studies, Korea National Diplomatic Academy

Panelist

DR. SOPHIE WUSHUANG YI

Research Fellow, Marine Studies Center, Grandview Institution

Panelist

DR. EUAN GRAHAM

Senior Analyst, Australia Strategic Policy Institute

Chair

Parallel Session B: Assessment of Dispute Management and Risk Reduction in the South China Sea

Managing disputes and reducing risks in the South China Sea remain urgent challenges amid overlapping claims, rising tensions, and competing strategic interests. This session will provide diverse perspectives on practical mechanisms for preventing escalation and fostering cooperation. Topics will include China’s approach to dispute management, the role of marine scientific research in confidence-building, the establishment of marine protected areas, and the prospects for bilateral negotiations and a binding regional Code of Conduct. By bringing together experts from law, policy, and science, the discussion aims to highlight pathways for mitigating risks while clearly identifying malign efforts that serve to obstruct peaceful and rules-based management and settlement of disputes.

CAPT. XIAOBO LIU (RET., PLA NAVY)

Director, Marine Study Center Grandview Institution, Beijing

Topic: PRC Perspective on Dispute Management and Risk Reduction

DR. ABE WOO

Senior Fellow, WPS

Topic: Marine Scientific Research

DR. VU HAI DANG

Director, Centre for ASEAN and Maritime Cooperation, East Sea Institute, DAV

Topic: Marine Protected Areas

ATTY. JAY BATONGBACAL

Director, Institute for Maritime and Law of the Sea, University of the Philippines

Topic: Bilateral Negotiations and Regional Code of Conduct

CARL BAKER

Executive Director, Pacific Forum, Honolulu

Chair

Special Lunch Roundtable: Advancing the ASEAN Coast Guard Forum (ACGF) as an ASEAN Regional Mechanism

With growing challenges to maritime safety and security in Southeast Asia, there is renewed momentum to institutionalize the ASEAN Coast Guard Forum (ACGF) as a formal regional mechanism for cooperation. This roundtable will convene the heads of maritime law enforcement agencies from Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Cambodia to discuss practical pathways for advancing the ACGF. The dialogue will explore how stronger coordination in areas such as joint patrols, information-sharing, capacity-building, and humanitarian assistance can enhance ASEAN’s collective ability to safeguard its waters, reinforce regional stability, and uphold international law. They will also explore ways to make the ACGF a more consequential institution for confidence-building and safeguarding regional stability and international law.

VADM. IRVANSYAH

Chief, Indonesia Coast Guard (BAKAMLA)

Panelist

ADM. DATUK HAJI MOHD ROSLI BIN ABDULLAH

Director-General, Malaysia Maritime Enforcement Agency

Panelist

ADM. RONNIE GIL LATORILLA GAVAN

Commandant, Philippine Coast Guard

Panelist

VADM. PONGSAK SOMBOON

Deputy Secretary-General, Thai Maritime Enforcement Command Center (Thai-MECC)

Panelist

DR. ASYURA SALLEH

Associate Programme Officer, UNODC Global Maritime Crime Programme

Chair

Plenary Session 6: Maritime Capacity-Building for a Rules-based, Equitable and Sustainable Maritime Order in the Indo-Pacific

Building maritime capacity is central to advancing a rules-based, equitable, and sustainable maritime order in the Indo-Pacific. As coastal and seafaring nations face mounting challenges—from illegal fishing and environmental degradation to illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive (ICAD) operations at sea—stronger institutions and capable coast guards are essential. This session will discuss the status of maritime capacity-building programs in the region, including training, technology-sharing, provisions of patrol ships and maritime domain awareness capabilities, and sustainable fisheries management.

VADM. KANOSUE HIROAKI

Vice Commandant for Operations, Japan Coast Guard

RADM. ROMMEL SUPANGAN

Commander, Coast Guard Fleet, Philippine Coast Guard

FADM. ASKARI, P.S.C., S.IKOM

Director for Cooperation, Indonesia Coast Guard (BAKAMLA)

DR. JOHN BRADFORD

Executive Director, YCAPS

Chair

Plenary Session 7: Takeaways - Fireside Chat on The South China Sea and Perspectives on Defending the Rules-based Order

Defending the rules-based order in the South China Sea demands both national resolve and sustained international cooperation. In recent years, however, the very notion of a “rules-based order” has come under increasing scrutiny. Critics ask, whose rules are being upheld, while others note that the concept now faces competing narratives from Beijing and Moscow promoting a so-called “multipolar international order.” This session will examine these debates through the lens of current developments in the South China Sea—ranging from the unlawful assertion of maritime claims and coercive maneuvers at sea to questions surrounding the continued authority of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

HON. GILBERT TEODORO

Secretary of National Defense, Philippines

Keynote Remarks

PROF. ATSUKO KANEHARA

Research Director for the Canon Institute for Global Studies

Panelist

DR. JA IAN CHONG

Associate Professor of Political Science, National University of Singapore

Panelist

BRAD GLOSSERMAN

Director of Research, Pacific Forum, Honolulu

Chair

Announcements and Closing Remarks

DR. JEFFREY ORDANIEL

President & CEO, WPS; Lead Convenor, The Manila Dialogue on the South China Sea