AGENDA & RECORDINGS

Opening Dinner and Keynote Address

Opening Session

DR. JEFFREY ORDANIEL

Lead Convenor, The Manila Dialogue on the South China Sea

Agenda Setting

GEN. EDUARDO AÑO (RET., AFP)

National Security Adviser, Philippines

Opening Remarks

HON. FERDINAND MARTIN ROMUALDEZ

Speaker, House of the Representaives 19th Congress of the Philippines

Keynote Address, Represented by

ADM. RONNIE GIL LATORILLA GAVAN

Commandant, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG)

Introduction of the Keynote Speakers

H.E. FERDINAND MARCOS, JR.

President of the Philippines

Keynote Address, Represented by

LUCAS BERSAMIN

Executive Secretary, Office of the President of the Philippines

Panel 1: The Coast Guard as Guardians of the Rule of Law at Sea

In much of Southeast Asia, coast guard organizations have become the primary agencies in maintaining maritime safety and security, often in sea-areas within national jurisdiction. Over the past couple of years however, the increasing prevalence of grey-zone coercion at sea has made coast guards more than just constabulary maritime forces. They are now playing important roles in ensuring that littoral states of the South China Sea maintain their jurisdiction over their territorial seas, exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and continental shelf, in accordance with international law. This panel will focus on the roles of Coast Guard Agencies in securing the rule of law in the South China Sea.

Panel Discussion

ADM. RONNIE GIL LATORILLA GAVAN

Commandant, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG), Philippine Coast Guard

VADM. IRVANSYAH

Chief, Badan Keamanan Laut Republik Indonesia – BAKAMLA (Indonesian Maritime Security Agency)

VADM. HIROAKI KANOSUE

Vice Commandant for Operations, Japan Coast Guard (JCG)

FIRST ADM.DATUK CHE ENGKU SUHAIMI CHE ENGKU DAIK

Director, Maritime Affairs of Sabah and Labuan, Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency (MMEA)

H.E. LAI THAI BINH

Ambassador of Viet Nam to the Philippines

DR. SATU LIMAYE

Vice President, East West Center

Panel Chair

Beyond the Superpower - Regional Approaches to Maritime Security Burden Sharing: A Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Special Working Lunch Roundtable (By Invitation Only/Chatham House Rule)

The off-the-record roundtable discussion delves into the evolving maritime security landscape in the Indo-Pacific and beyond, emphasizing the necessity for regional powers and smaller nations to collaboratively share responsibilities.

Off-the-Record/By-Invitation Only Working Lunch Panel

DANIELA BRAUN

Country Director, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) Philippines

Welcome Remarks

COMMO. JAY TARRIELA

Chief, West Philippine Sea Transparency Office SETTING THE STAGE

Setting the Stage

DR. ALEXANDER VUVING

Professor, Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS), Honolulu

Calling Regional Powers and Alliances to Action

DR. COLLIN KOH

Senior fellow, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies

Calling Regional Powers and Alliances to Action

PROF. BEC STRATING

Director, La Trobe Asia & Professor of International Relations, La Trobe University

Formulating an Approach

BEA CUPIN

Senior Multimedia Reporter, Rappler

Moderator for Open Discussion

Panel 2: Advancing the Rule of Law in the South China Sea - Perspectives from Claimant States

President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. of the Philippines, Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính of Vietnam, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim of Malaysia, and President Xi Jinping of China have all articulated the importance of adherence to international law in managing and resolving maritime disputes. Why then are tensions in the South China Sea escalating? This panel will assess how major Southeast Asian claimants – the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and China - view the concept of “rules-based order” vis-à-vis the South China Sea.

Panel Discussion

MARSHALL LOUIS ALFEREZ

Assistant Secretary, Maritime and Ocean Affairs Office, Department of Foreign Affairs, Philippines

Opening Remarks

ANTONIO CARPIO

Chairman, Institute of Maritime and Ocean Affairs, Manila

CAPTAIN XIAOBO LIU (RET., PLA NAVY)

Director, Marine Study Center, Grandview Institution, Beijing

DR. SUMATHY PERMAL

Senior Research Fellow, Maritime Institute of Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur

DR. HAI-DANG VU

Researcher, Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, Hanoi

FRETTI GANCHOON

Senior State Counsel, Department of Justice, Philippines

Panel Chair

Panel 3: Rule of Law in the South China Sea: Should the World Care?

Some argue that external actors should refrain from getting involved, directly or indirectly, in the South China Sea issue and should simply allow China and Southeast Asian countries to settle their own differences. They say external actors simply “stir troubles” and turn the issue into a strategic competition inhibiting cooperation. Others contend that security issues concerning the South China Sea, a major trade route and choke point, are related to the peace and stability of the broader region, and that the involvement of the international community is essential in ensuring that the rule of law prevails, not coercion and force. This session will discuss this enduring foreign policy debate.

Panel Discussion

PROF. JAMES KRASKA

Charles H. Stockton Professor of International Maritime Law, Stockton Center for International Law, U.S. Naval War College

PROF. WONGI CHOE

Professor and Head of Center for ASEAN-India Studies, Korea National Diplomatic Academy

DR. SARAH KIRCHBERGER

Head, Center for Asia-Pacific Strategy & Security, Institute for Security Policy, Kiel University

PROF. XIAOLU LEI

Professor of Law, Wuhan University China Institute of Boundary and Ocean Studies

BRAD GLOSSERMAN

Senior Adviser, Pacific Forum

Panel Chair

Panel 4: Understanding Recent Threats to the Rule of Law in the South China Sea, 2023-2024

2023-2024 saw a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of high-tension incidents in the South China Sea. These tensions have led to discussions about whether some of the actions could still be classified as ‘gray’ or could already be classified as ‘use of force,’ or ‘armed attack’. In this panel, experts will review these incidents to generate insights into the root causes of the heightening tensions and evaluate how these incidents have gradually threatened the rule of law in the South China Sea. The session will also explore actionable recommendations to prevent further escalation and discourage coercion and use of force.

Panel Discussion

PROF. BO HU

Director, South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative

PROF. JAY BATONGBACAL

Professor, University of the Philippines College of Law

RAY POWELL

Director, Sealight-Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, Stanford University

DR. HAI DO

Deputy Director General, East Sea Institute, Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam

PROF. FREGA W. INKIRIWANG

Associate Professor, Republic of Indonesia Defense University

AMB. LAURA DEL ROSARIO

President, Miriam College

Panel Chair

Panel 5: Peace and Stability in the South China Sea - the Stakes of the International Community

What exactly are the stakes for the international community in the South China Sea? In this Diplomatic Roundtable, the Ambassadors of Japan, Australia, the United States, Germany, and Canada will explain why their governments want more rule of law in the South China Sea and what they are doing to advance it.

Diplomatic Roundtable

H.E. JOSE MANUEL G. ROMUALDEZ

Ambassador of the Republic of the Philippines to the United States

Opening Remarks

H.E. ENDO KAZUYA

Ambassador of Japan to the Philippines

H.E. DAVID HARTMAN

Ambassador of Canada to the Philippines

H.E. HAE KYONG YU

Ambassador of Australia to the Philippines

HON. MARYKAY CARLSON

Ambassador of the United States to the Philippines

H.E. ANDREAS MICHAEL PFAFFERNOSCHKE

Ambassador of Germany to the Philippines

PROF. DINDO MANHIT

President, Stratbase Institute

Panel Chair

Working Lunch: Exposing Bad Behavior at Sea - Transparency and Countering Malign Influence Operations

How does transparent accounting of events and confrontations at sea support efforts aimed at promoting a rules-based maritime order? How can governments safeguard their institutions and the public from foreign malign influence operations that seek to confuse their people, poison political discourse, and make outright violations of international law seemingly acceptable and coercion, justifiable?

Working Lunch Plenary

JONATHAN MALAYA

Assistant Director General for Strategic Communications, National Security Council Philippines

Opening Remarks

COMMO. JAY TARRIELA, PCG

Chief, West Philippine Sea Transparency Office

PHUONG-THAO NGUYEN

PhD Candidate, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University

RADM. KATSUYA YAMAMOTO (RET., JMSDF)

Program Director, Security Studies, Sasakawa Peace Foundation

DR. BIC TRAN

Postdoctoral Fellow, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy

Panel Chair

Panel 6: Partnerships for A More Rules-based South China Sea - Roles of External Partners

Partnerships with external actors have proven essential in ensuring that the littoral states of Southeast Asia have the needed capacity to protect their maritime zones, benefit from their maritime entitlements, and fulfill their maritime obligations under international law. This panel will look at the policies and efforts of other actors interested in helping the region defend the rule of law in the South China Sea.

Panel Discussion

PROF. ALESSIO PATALANO

Professor of War & Strategy in East Asia, Department of War Studies, King's College London

PROF. BRAHMA CHELLANEY

Professor of Strategic Studies, Center for Policy Research, New Delhi

CAPT. FURUYA KENTARO

Japan Coast Guard Academy

GREGORY POLING

Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative-CSIS, Washington, DC

JENNIFER PARKER

Expert Associate at the National Security College, ANU

BRAD GLOSSERMAN. JEFFREY ORDANIEL

Senior Adviser, Pacific Forum

Panel Chair

Panel 7: Key Takeaways, Policy Recommendations and Next Steps

As the inaugural dialogue concludes, this final session will look at some of the key takeaways from the two-day discussions, including highlighting the most contentious debates for further consideration, the most innovative policy solutions, and other key observations. The session will also solicit ideas for next steps, including potential themes and agenda for the next iteration.

Plenary Discussion

REAR ADMIRAL ROMMEL ONG (RET., AFP)

Professor of Praxis, Ateneo School of Government

DR. JOHN BRADFORD

Executive Director, Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies (YCAPS)

PROF. BEC STRATING

Director, La Trobe Asia & Professor of International Relations, La Trobe University

CARL BAKER

Executive Director, Pacific Forum

Moderator